Methodology
The twelve-factor board
Midnight Board is a desk, not a vibe poll. Every ranking and every winner pick is a weighted blend of the same analytic stack: an external power index when one exists, win quality, Pythagorean expectation, point/run/goal differential, recent form, strength of schedule, offense, defense, availability, home/road, clutch/streak, and playoff path.
Weekly drops
NBA · Mondays at midnight CT
Sixteen teams. Official drop every Monday at 12:00 a.m. Central while the NBA season is live. Every club carries points for, points against, and a plus-minus power number, then the rest of the twelve-factor stack. Offseason boards hang last season’s scoring plus BPI as an opening-day sheet.
NFL · Tuesdays at midnight CT
Full 32-team poll. Official drop every Tuesday at 12:00 a.m. Central during the NFL season, after Monday night is in the books. Points for, points against, and plus-minus sit on the row with FPI, EPA, form, and availability.
MLB · Mondays at midnight CT
Fifteen teams. Official drop every Monday at 12:00 a.m. Central from Opening Day through the postseason. Runs for, runs against, and the plus-minus power number feed Pythagorean expectation and the rest of the board.
NHL · Mondays at midnight CT
Sixteen teams. Official drop every Monday at 12:00 a.m. Central. Wins, losses, overtime losses, and standings points sit on the row with goals for, goals against, and the plus-minus power number, then the rest of the twelve-factor stack.
Factors
- 01
Power index
IDX
- 02
Win quality
W/L
- 03
Pythagorean
PYTH
- 04
Plus / minus
+/-
- 05
Recent form
L10
- 06
Strength of schedule
SOS
- 07
Offense
OFF
- 08
Defense
DEF
- 09
Availability
HLTH
- 10
Home / road
H/R
- 11
Streak & clutch
CLUT
- 12
Path / outlook
PATH
In-season weights
Preseason and offseason boards shift weight onto the power index and last-season profile until the sample is real. Percentiles are league-relative, so a 92 defense means elite in that sport, that week.
| Factor | nba | nfl | mlb | nhl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDX | 22% | 24% | 4% | 4% |
| W/L | 10% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
| PYTH | 10% | 8% | 16% | 14% |
| +/- | 10% | 10% | 14% | 14% |
| L10 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| SOS | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% |
| OFF | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| DEF | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
| HLTH | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| H/R | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| CLUT | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| PATH | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
Winner picks
- MLB, NBA, WNBA, NFL, NHL, college football, college basketball, and UFC — the live week. Daily sports stay on this Central week through Sunday, then flip. MLB and WNBA playoff games stay on the card as soon as the series is posted, even past Sunday. NFL and CFB stay on the current week until every game is final, then the next week loads on its own.
- Win probability is a logistic on board-rating gap, home edge (zero at a neutral site), injury load, and recent form.
- Predicted score blends each club’s scoring profile with league average. UFC cards skip a scoreline — the pick is the fighter, from record and experience, shrunk so a 7-0 prospect does not outrank a 30-fight champion.
- When a market moneyline is posted, the card shows model vs implied probability — an edge, not a bet ticket.
Futures
Championship prices come off the live sportsbook wire. American moneylines convert to implied probability, then scale vig-free so each market sums to 100. DraftKings is preferred when more than one book is up. The World Series card is this season’s market, not last year’s settled prices. MLB’s individual awards — MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Reliever of the Year, Comeback Player, Manager of the Year, the Hank Aaron Award, and Outstanding DH — are priced by this desk from the season sheet once the books take those markets down. Pennant and World Series prices stay on the wire all year.
Numbers move with live standings, injuries, and index feeds. This desk is for reading the board — not a sportsbook, not advice, not a guarantee.